2025 U.S. Open picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win from betting field at Oakmont

OAKMONT, Pa. — The 125th edition of the U.S. Open returns to the USGA’s favorite stomping grounds for the first time in nine years as Oakmont Country Club hosts the national championship for the 10th time in tournament history. The key question everyone is asking remains the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win the 2025 U.S. Open?

With an extraordinary 156-man field featuring the best golfers in the game contending at the nation’s most difficult course, the third major championship of the season should be an epic ride from Thursday’s first round through Sunday evening. Check out Round 1 tee times so you know exactly when to watch your favorite golfers at Oakmont.

While the U.S. Open field is stacked, what was once a three-headed monster at the top of the sport — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau — has quickly lost one of its noggins. McIlroy’s fall from grace since claiming his first Masters and completing the career grand slam has been remarkable and disappointing given many observers believed he might go on a major-winning barrage after getting the monkey off his back.

Instead, Rory has been silent both on and off the course since that victory with Scheffler completely turning around his season with three wins in four starts and the first PGA Championship of his career. And then there’s DeChambeau, the reigning U.S. Open champion looking for his third victory at this major. Though Oakmont presents the toughest test he’s faced yet in this tournament, the pedigree for success is clearly on the big-swinging right hander’s resume.

Jon Rahm’s resurgence at the PGA forces us to turn attention back the way of the Spaniard, while the likes of Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth represent a trio of Americans hoping for a breakthrough victory to end a variety of recent struggles.

So, what is going to happen at Oakmont this week? There are storylines aplenty to follow, and the trends certainly point us in a particular direction.  Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts, along with the nine golfers most likely to conquer Oakmont, as we attempt to project who will win — and what will go down — at the third major championship of the season.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Winner — Scottie Scheffler (11/4): He’s been the pick for this tournament at this venue for more than a year, and the scary part is the confidence has only grown. For the first time in his career, the three-time major champion can say he is the most complete player in the world as there is not one single hole in his arsenal. No. 1 in just about every meaningful category from bounce back percentage to bogey avoidance, Scheffler’s game and mental fortitude was made for this test.

Sleeper — Keegan Bradley (100-1): Make no mistake, not everyone is excited to play at Oakmont this week. Bradley is the opposite. The former PGA Championship winner thrives when the going gets tough, and his game is rounding the corner at the exact right time. Bradley arrives in Pittsburgh (a region of the country where he tends to play his best golf) with consecutive top-10 finishes at the PGA Championship and the Memorial. His short game has been sensational the last three months, and he won’t back down from a fight.

Top 10 lock — Bryson DeChambeau: His driver gives him such a high floor, especially with the golf course taking on some early week rains. The reigning champion has been a fixture in U.S. based major championships the last few seasons, and that is not stopping at Oakmont. I question whether the style of golf course — not necessarily the rough but the required shot making — will hinder his chances at winning, but even if so, a top-10 finish seems safe.

Star who definitely won’t win — Justin Thomas: Feels like I have been picking on him in this section (sorry!), but this week the same rings true. Thomas is just not good enough as a driver to contend on major championship golf courses this season. Since his win at the 2022 PGA Championship, he has six missed cuts with five finishes outside the top 30 in his 12 major appearances. His worst finishes this season have come at Quail Hollow, Augusta National, Bay Hill and Muirfield Village.

Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Bryson DeChambeau: Wild how much can change in less than one month as all three players entered the PGA Championship side by side with McIlroy plummeting to the bottom. Something is off with the Masters champion, and this will allow Scheffler and DeChambeau to potentially duke it out for the title. Scheffler is the pick to win, DeChambeau is the pick to finish inside the top 10, and McIlroy is the pick to do something bizarre.

Surprise prediction — A few short hitters contend: The U.S. Open has catered to bombers of the golf ball in recent years with the likes of DeChambeau, McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka all finding success. The last three U.S. Open winners at Oakmont have all finished inside the top five in terms of driving distance as well, but all of that is to say, I’m not buying it. This is a shotmaker’s paradise, and those players who may lack a little pop off the tee will be able to keep up with the big hitters thanks to their iron play. I’m thinking an Aaron Rai or a Corey Conners or possibly a Denny McCarthy type of player can have a say in this championship.

Lowest round: 66 (-4)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner’s Sunday score: 71 (+1)

Winner — Bryson DeChambeau (15/2): We’ve seen Rory and Scottie win majors in 2025. This week we go 3 for 3 watching as the game’s three biggest stars claim a major. DeChambeau’s game fits a U.S. Open set-up not only because of his length off the tee but because he’s become one of the best in terms of consistency on and around the greens. His putting — and specifically his speed control — is going to make the difference in him winning on the lightning fast greens at Oakmont. 

Sleeper — Harris English (80-1): We saw in 2016 that Oakmont is not just a bomber’s paradise, but that accuracy off the tee, ball-striking and a calm demeanor are equally as important. English has those three qualities in abundance (he is a Flusher), and while he’s not always the best at piling up birdies when a tournament becomes a shootout, the grind of this week is going to play to his strengths. 

Top 10 lock — Collin Morikawa: The real answer here is Scheffler, but it’s no fun laying 1-4 odds on a top 10 bet, so I’m treating this question as if it’s a “without Scottie” market. I’ll take the guy who is No. 2 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy to hang around the first page of the leaderboard at Oakmont. He’s got everything a player could need to win on this course, and I’m more bullish on his chances on the Oakmont greens than most. Some of his best putting rounds in recent years have come on the extremely fast greens at Augusta National, and he tends to fare better when the greens are faster (in part because fewer guys are pouring in long putts). He’s really good with speed control and three-putt avoidance, and that’s huge at an Oakmont U.S. Open. 

Star who definitely won’t win — Rory McIlroy: I was skeptical of McIlroy’s chances at Oakmont a week ago, but after his performance at the Canadian Open, I just don’t see how he turns it around in six days. He has absolutely no confidence in the drivers he’s putting in the bag right now, and that’s just not going to work at Oakmont. Even if he found one he liked on the range in Florida this weekend, he is not going to trust it in competition the way he needs. On top of all that, he seems to have taken a deep exhale after completing the career grand slam, and it may just take awhile for him to figure out what his motivation is to try and be at that super-elite level again. 

Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Bryson DeChambeau: DeChambeau is easily on top given I’m picking him to win. Ranking the rest, it’s Scheffler neck-and-neck with Bryson with McIlroy a distant third given his aforementioned struggles of late.

Surprise prediction — Nick Taylor finishes in the top 20: Taylor’s been playing some great golf of late and has those qualities I talked about above with English. He’s not highly valued on the odds sheet because he’s a shorter hitter, but if we take it back to 2016, Jim Furyk was dead last on the PGA Tour in driving distance that season and finished 2nd. Distance is not as much a necessity at Oakmont as some say (it’s helpful, sure), so Taylor can keep it rolling this week. 

Lowest round: 66 (-4)
Winning score: 277 (-3)
Winner’s Sunday score: 70 (E)

Winner — Jon Rahm (14-1): Rahm has found his groove after a strange start to his LIV Golf career. While he’s not actively winning, Rahm is regularly completing top 10 finishes on that tour, and he’s improved in majors with three consecutive top 15s. He’s a top-three driver in this tournametn, which will be key to winning at Oakmont, and he only has one finish outside the top 12 at a U.S. Open since 2018 (T23).

Sleeper — Ben Griffin (75-1): The man is on a heater. Outside of an odd two-week stretch in early May, Griffin has finished 1st, T8, 1st and 2nd at four of his last six starts. He has picked up the first two wins of his PGA Tour career and should’ve taken a third at the Memorial if not for an incredibly poor playof performance. Whether he fits the course is of little consequence. At odds this long, I want to ride with someone who has proven he can level up to the toughest competition in the world actively this season.

Top 10 lock — Scottie Scheffler: Why waste time playing around with another option? Sure, DeChambeu has won two of the last five U.S. Opens — with five top-six finishes in his last seven major starts — but at a course like Oakmont, it could go poorly for him in a flash. Scheffler is as steady as they come with 14 top 10s over the last 19 majors, including three wins and top-three finishes at the U.S. Open in 2022-23. Sure, his worst major appearance since 2022 came at last year’s national championship, but that was a blip and hardly a cause for long-term concern. Something would be quite wrong if Scheffler is not in contention come Sunday.  

Star who definitely won’t win — Justin Thomas: Patrick nailed it choosing Thomas in this spot. He remains one of the most talented golfers on the PGA Tour, but he is not putting it all together in majors, and his struggles with the driver basically make him a non-starter at Oakmont. 

Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Bryson DeChambeau: While I would love to believe that McIlroy will suddenly flip a switch and get back to being the player he was before winning the Masters and completing the career grand slam, this has become an, “I’ll believe it when I see it” scenario. McIlroy will find himself again, but immediately after nearly finishing last in the field at the RBC Canadian Open? That’s tough to imagine. Scheffler is my top 10 lock, and DeChambeau is not, so it’s really the McIlroy-DeChambeau battle that is worth following. I’ll take Rory over Bryson, mostly just to be different but also because it’s not as if McIlroy has completely forgotten how to play golf.

Surprise prediction — Phil Mickelson contends on the weekend: It may only be briefly, and it might not mean much, but the 54-year-old Leftyis in his final year of qualification for the U.S. Open and stated last week that it may actually be his last attempt at the national championship. A runner-up six times at this tournament, Mickelson will not get the monkey off his back this week, but he’ll absolutely give it everything he’s got. Wouldn’t you?

Lowest round: 67 (-3)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner’s Sunday score: 70 (E)

Who will win the U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that’s nailed 15 golf majors, including the past four Masters. It is up nearly $9,000 since June 2020.

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