Deontay Wilder vs. Tyrrell Herndon fight prediction, start time, where to watch, odds, undercard, preview

Once one of the most feared punchers on the planet, Deontay Wilder heads into Friday’s fight with Tyrrell Herndon desperately needing to find an offensive spark.

Wilder (43-4-1, 42 KO) has lost four of his five most recent trips to the ring, but the past two fights were especially troubling. Wilder was listless in losing a wide 12-round decision to Joseph Parker, landing just 39 of 204 punches thrown. Things got even worse against Zhilei Zhang, when Wilder landed just 16 of 95 punches thrown before suffering a brutal fifth-round knockout.

Wilder went undefeated in the first 43 bouts of his pro career, including 41 knockout wins, with the lone blemish a controversial December 2018 draw against Tyson Fury in a fight most felt Fury deserved to win. Fury would prove to be the better man when he won their February 2020 rematch by TKO in Round 7 and their trilogy fight in October 2021 by KO in Round 11.

Those were the first defeats of Wilder’s career and also ended his lengthy run (10 defenses) as WBC heavyweight champion.

On paper, Herndon (24-5, 15 KO) is a perfect “get right” opponent for Wilder. Herndon’s record looks decent, but his wins have come against less than impressive opposition. In his two most recent bouts, Herndon had to settle for split decision wins over fighters who entered with 8-9 and 7-0-1 records.

Herndon has also been stopped four times, with all four of those stoppages coming before the end of the third round.

This fight is the first of a three-fight deal between Wilder and Nelson Lopez Jr., a matchmaker who previously worked with Golden Boy Promotions and Premier Boxing Champions. The goal is for Wilder to get three wins over the course of that deal in hopes of setting up a showdown with Anthony Joshua, a dream fight that never materialized while the fighters were at the height of their powers.

Let’s take a look at the odds on the main event before getting to a prediction and expert pick.

Herndon was picked as Wilder’s comeback fight for very clear reasons, the top of which is likely that he simply isn’t very good. Herndon is also a very stoppable opponent. He has been in with some notable names and has been thrashed in each of those bouts. Herndon was stopped by Efe Ajagba in one round in Ajagba’s pro debut, lost by disqualification to Brandon Glanton and was also stopped in two rounds by Richard Torrez Jr. He was also stopped in the first round by Corey Barlow, who holds a 3-7-2 record.

Wilder doesn’t need to be at his best to beat a fighter like Herndon, he just needs to throw punches. The biggest concerns for Wilder are that he didn’t throw nearly enough punches in his two most recent outings and that he has suffered some big knockdowns and knockouts over his past five fights. Those are probably concerns that come into play against a better opponent than Herndon. Pick: Deontay Wilder via KO1

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