OPEC+ to Weigh Next Output Move in Weekend Talks

Arabian Post Staff -Dubai

A pivotal online gathering on Sunday will determine whether the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies proceed with further oil production increases or hold current levels. The group has already rolled back its earlier cuts by 2.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to around 2.4 per cent of global demand, and is now assessing whether to unwind the next 1.65 million bpd tranche ahead of schedule.

Markets responded to the impending meeting with cautious anticipation. Brent crude fell modestly, trading near $67 a barrel, while U. S. West Texas Intermediate hovered around $63–$64. Analysts, including those at ANZ, flagged that any additional supply could deepen the surplus during a typically weak demand season. The softening outlook has already rippled through equity markets: major oil producers and service firms such as APA, Occidental, Halliburton and Schlumberger saw their shares slip between 3 and 5 per cent.

Since April, OPEC+ has pursued an aggressive unwind of output curbs. Initial increases began with modest tranches but have since accelerated: April saw the first rise, followed by consistent monthly boosts—from 411,000 bpd in May, June and July to 548,000 bpd for August and 547,000 bpd for September. These decisions reflect strategic moves to regain market share amidst growing competition, especially from U. S. shale producers, and external pressures, including public calls from the U. S. administration to increase global supply.

Despite these ramped-up supplies, prices have retained considerable strength—hovering around the $70 mark—bolstered by low inventory levels and geopolitical constraints, particularly sanctions on Russia and Iran. Analysts at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia observe that OPEC+ now appears comfortable with Brent trading in the $60–$65 range, a level that could pressure U. S. shale operations by narrowing profit margins.

Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated an unexpected rise of 622,000 barrels in U. S. crude stocks, counter to forecasts, adding another layer of downward pressure on prices. The situation reflects a delicate balance: rising supply meets lukewarm demand, particularly as global economic growth shows signs of softening in key regions like China, India and Brazil.

Executive voices within OPEC+ remain tight-lipped. No official statements were forthcoming from Riyadh or other capitals prior to the weekend meeting. Analysts remain split: some believe the group will maintain its current stance through October, exercising caution amid market saturation concerns. Others argue that continued increases are part of a calculated strategy to defend or expand market share well into next year.

Also published on Medium.

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