Tariff Turmoil Deepens India’s Energy-Trade Dilemma

Arabian Post Staff -Dubai

A surge in U. S. import duties has swiftly altered the economic landscape, with substantive implications for oil markets, trade dynamics and strategic alliances. U. S. President Donald Trump has enacted additional tariffs of up to 50 percent on imports from India in response to New Delhi’s continued purchases of discounted Russian crude. The escalation, applied in two stages and bringing tariffs from 25 percent to 50 percent, took effect on Wednesday, disrupting both markets and diplomatic ties.

Oil prices slipped as traders absorbed the news, with crude extending its decline as markets weighed the ripple effects of the heightened tariffs. The move is expected to erode India’s export earnings while simultaneously undermining the financial benefit of cheaper Russian oil.

Analysts calculate that India has saved around $17 billion by ramping up imports of Russian crude since early 2022. Now, with the tariffs in place, export revenues could shrink by more than $37 billion this fiscal year—nearly halving the gains previously made in energy procurement. The most vulnerable sectors include labour-intensive industries such as textiles, gems, jewellery, seafood and organic chemicals, where job losses may be significant.

New Delhi has resisted external pressure to cease its oil trade with Russia, citing national interest and energy security. Refiners and government officials have indicated that the message from the centre is clear: strategic autonomy takes precedence over commercial coercion. At the same time, discussions are in progress through virtual channels, encompassing trade, energy and critical mineral collaboration.

The tariffs are not only triggering economic recalibration but also intensify diplomatic friction. Experts warn this could become the most serious crisis in U. S.–India relations in decades. The uneven application—targeting India while China remains largely exempt—has heightened perceptions of hypocrisy and could push India closer to alternative partners such as Russia or China.

Domestic responses are underway. Authorities are exploring measures to cushion the blow, such as reducing tax burdens, providing credit support to exporters, and diversifying trade destinations towards Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia and the EU. On the U. S. side, certain sectors—including pharmaceuticals and electronics—remain exempt from the higher tariffs, partly shielding U. S. companies such as Apple which have investments in Indian manufacturing.

Currency markets and investor sentiment reacted sharply, with Indian stock indices tumbling as concerns mounted over export disruption and broader economic repercussions.

Also published on Medium.

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