Will the Marlins’ current winning streak affect the trade deadline? Miami’s hot run has team nearing record

The Miami Marlins will attempt to tie the longest winning streak in franchise history on Wednesday night, when they seek their ninth consecutive victory versus the Minnesota Twins (GameTracker). The Marlins, Major League Baseball’s only club without a double-digit winning streak in franchise history, have won nine games in a row on five occasions over the years, albeit none more recently than September 2008.

Here’s a look at the then-Florida lineup from the eighth and final win of that stretch:

Marlins lineup on Sept. 18, 2008

1. CF Cameron Maybin

2. C John Baker

3. 3B Jorge Cantu

4. 1B Mike Jacobs

5. 2B Dan Uggla

6. LF Josh Willingham

7. RF Cody Ross

8. SS Alfredo Amezaga

9. P Scott Olsen

Things are going well anytime you can invoke the name of Alfredo Amezaga. 

Sure enough, the Marlins haven’t lost since June 21. They’ve taken a series from the Atlanta Braves and have swept the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks (both on the road). They’ve also improved their record to 38-45, putting them seven games back of the National League’s third and final wild-card spot.

Might all of this winning alter the course for a team that was expected to be a top seller at the July 31 trade deadline? As one executive put it to me in May: “I think [general manager Peter Bendix] would move his own mother if a club offered the right combination of athletic 17-year-olds.” In other words, probably not.

Part of running a successful front office, particularly one hamstrung by a laughable budget, is maintaining a realistic view of your team’s short- and long-term outlook. That means clocking a hot streak from a mediocre team as, well, a hot streak from a mediocre team, rather than the start of a 2024 Detroit Tigers-like surge. Bendix, who comes from the Tampa Bay Rays front office, knows all about probabilistic thinking and doesn’t seem likely to be swayed by two good weeks.

Remember, Bendix was installed after the Marlins made a miraculous run to the 2023 playoffs. He dismantled that roster in short order because he had (correctly) evaluated they weren’t a legitimate contender. All the credit in the world to first-year manager Clayton McCullough and the Marlins players, but it would surprise me if Bendix felt this team was capable of going the distance — be it now or in the near future.

Indeed, even with the recent tear, the Marlins still possess the second-worst run differential of any NL club. (Run differential is a more predictive measure of future team performance than won-lost record.) Even if you think the Marlins have figured something out recently and that they’re better than their full-season run differential suggests, it’s hard to argue that this group is built to last. Miami’s roster includes some quality young pieces — catcher Agustín Ramírez and southpaw Eury Pérez among them — but this isn’t the complexion of a team on the rise. Take a look at the ages of their top 12 performers on the roster, according to Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric:

There’s no modifier in place if a team’s core is younger than another’s; wins notched by a 24-year-old don’t count for more than those by a 31-year-old. But when you have a losing record and a table like the one above shows zero top contributors in their early 20s, you need to get ready to move and shake. That’s precisely what I anticipate the Marlins will do over the coming weeks. 

To Bendix’s credit, he’s either inherited or unearthed some compelling trade candidates. Everyone knows about Sandy Alcantara and Cabrera, but Miami will likely field calls on the likes of Stowers (trade addition), Myers (waiver claim), Henriquez (waiver claim), Bellozo (small trade), and Calvin Faucher (trade addition) too. (Lefty Ryan Weathers would be listed as well, but he’s on the 60-day injured list with a shoulder issue.) I expect the Marlins to flip some of those players to contenders, recouping packages of interesting, younger players in an attempt to amass the kind of talent level and depth that’s necessary for competing on a year-in, year-out basis.

Of course, this isn’t a particularly fun way of thinking if you’re a Marlins fan just wanting to enjoy the odd stretch of good play. But then, the hope is that this kind of strategic thinking can pay off in the long run by giving the Marlins the ability to run off eight-game winning streaks with more regularity. 

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