Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 10: Wyatt Langford among best bets for Thursday HR player props

The Texas Rangers still have big hopes that Wyatt Langford will develop into one of MLB’s next big stars, and the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft has shown flashes of enormous talent. He’s still figuring things out, but one area where he’s shown improvement has been with his power, as he’s hit 14 home runs in 72 games this year after hitting 16 home runs in 134 games as a rookie. He’s made improvements in almost every batted-ball metric, and there have been a few indications of late that he might put it all together sooner rather than later.

On Thursday, Langford has a good matchup in a hitter-friendly park, and that’s why he’s one of our top MLB HR picks. He’s priced at +475 in the latest MLB home run odds from DraftKings, where you can also get $150 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager with this DraftKings promo code. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB home run picks on betting sites. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 40.65 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after hitting all three of its picks on Wednesday, with a three-leg parlay paying +12963. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, July 10:

Lanford had a homer and a double in Anaheim on Tuesday night and then backed that up with two more hits, so he’s seeing the ball well in Angels Stadium. He’s improved his average exit velocity (91.1 mph), hard-hit contact rate (47.7%) and flyball rate (29.9%) over last season, and that’s all leading to more regular power from the 23-year-old.

“Langford is a streaky hitter and coming off back-to-back two-hit games is a good time to buy Langford stock to hit a HR,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “According to Statcast, Angels Stadium is playing as the fourth-most HR friendly park this season. Angels’ starter, Jack Kochanowicz, has struggled at Angels Stadium, where opponents are hitting .310 against him.” DraftKings has the best price here.

The 27-year-old is a surprise batting title contender after three years of light hitting while being used sparingly to begin his career. He’s slashing .327/.403/.498 this season and has 11 home runs and 19 doubles. Aranda started turning hard-hit groundballs from earlier in his career into line drives this year, and a little bit more lift could unlock even more power, considering his 93.2 mph average exit velocity is 94th percentile among MLB hitters.

“Aranda has four at-bats against Walker Buehler and is 2-for-4 with a HR and a single. Aranda’s success against Buehler makes sense considering Buehler is allowing left-handed batters to hit .333 this season. Left-handed batters have a .904 OPS against Buehler, and Aranda has a .944 OPS against right-handed pitchers,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +460 for Aranda to homer.” BetMGM and bet365 both have this listed price, and you can also get $150 in bonus bets after your first $5 wager with this bet365 promo code.

The Mets are playing a doubleheader today, and this MLB HR pick is for Alonso to go yard in Game 1, which starts at 12:05 p.m. ET. The “Polar Bear” is sitting on 21 home runs for the season after launching three home runs in his last three games. He also leads the National League with 25 doubles, and the warm summer months should help him turn a few more of those warning-track two-baggers into homers.

“Alonso hasn’t had much success against Charlie Morton in his career, which is why you can get +400 for one of the league’s better power hitters, but Morton is 41 years and having his worst season in 10 years, so perhaps now is the time for Alonso to get to him,” Fetner said. “Right-handed batters are hitting .294 against Morton this season, which is well above his career rate of .246.” The model sets the line at +330 for Alonso to homer and BetMGM is offering the best price. You can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code.

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Thursday:

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 178-107 roll (+1012.75) on MLB picks. 

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